Personal Computers Will grow to One Billion By 2010
SOURCE: CNET NEWS.com
A billion PC users on the way
Published: August 2, 2004, 4:00 AM PDT
By Michael Kanellos
Staff Writer, CNET News.com
By the end of the decade, a billion people will be clicking away at computers, but generating a profit out of newly wired portions of the world is going to take a lot of work.
The number of PC users is expected to hit or exceed 1 billion by 2010, up from around 660 million to 670 million today, fueled primarily by new adopters in developing nations such as China, Russia and India, according to analysts.
"It took more than 20 years to grow the worldwide base of PC users to 600-plus million. By 2010, I expect that to grow to 1 billion, due to opportunities in emerging markets and new scenarios and form factors," Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer wrote in a recent e-mail to employees, outlining the company's growth potential.
Selling computers to people in these countries, however, won't be easy. Poverty, unreliable energy supplies, a multiplicity of languages, regional laws and education levels are all potentially major obstacles. And they could all get more daunting, rather than easier to manage, as time goes on.
"The problem isn't with the first billion, but the second or third billion," said Roger Kay, an analyst at IDC.
To penetrate these markets, companies are creating the sort of nation-building programs more often associated with organizations like the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and the United Nations. Microsoft, for example, has set up an initiative called the Local Economic Development Program for Software, in which company employees advise government officials on building tech programs at local universities, intellectual-property laws and other issues. Brazil is one of eight countries in the program
A lot of companies want to get into the export business, but you have to build your internal capabilities first," said Maggie Wilderotter, senior vice president of the worldwide public sector division at Microsoft, who, as part of her job, meets with people like Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and ministers of Jordan's national cabinet.
Designing products to be cheaper is also an issue. Hewlett-Packard's 441 system is an early attempt to grapple with the price and management issues. Introduced in South Africa, the computer features four keyboards with mice and monitors so that four different people--in a variety of the local languages--can work simultaneously. The Linux-based computer may get introduced to Southeast Asia later.
If technology can be seeded in a national economy, the gross domestic product will grow and in turn lead to future customers, said Maureen Conway, vice president of emerging market solutions at HP.
"But you've got to start the cycle somewhere," Conway said. "The low-cost access device is critical to product development."
In South Africa, the company has also taken over an abandoned university to train people on call center procedures and PC repair. In September, President Thabo Mbeki will speak at an HP-sponsored event.
Intel, Microsoft and others are developing cheaper components and software for these regions, along with technologies like voice and handwriting recognition.
One billion? Sooner than you think
Hitting a billion in a few years appears inevitable. IDC estimates that there were 670 million PC users worldwide in 2003. A little more...
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